Thursday, October 28, 2021

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Q3 GDP or How We Injured Our Elbows

                                                           
The release of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product was climactic. The economy grew at a measly two percent pace, after adjusting for seasonality according to the preliminary estimate by the Commerce Department.
 
  
Breitbart Business Digest
October 28, 2021
 

Today's Top Stories From the Breitbart News Desk

The release of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product was climactic. The economy grew at a measly two percent pace, after adjusting for seasonality according to the preliminary estimate by the Commerce Department. That was nearly a full point miss below the consensus estimate and very close to the bottom of the range of forecasts. Perhaps more importantly, it was a fraction of the forecasts for third-quarter growth that most Wall Street analysts were putting out at the start of the quarter.

At the risk of straining our elbows, we're going to take a moment to pat ourselves on the back. Back on April 29, subscribers of this newsletter were alerted to the possibility that the consensus on growth and inflation might be wrong.

We asked: What might happen when the Biden administration's policies hit the economy? We answered:

One possibility is the further acceleration that the Biden people predict. Another possibility is next to nothing. Consumers could pull back on spending in anticipation of higher taxes to pay for all this spending. And, finally, the third possibility is liftoff for long-dormant inflation. Right now the market seems to believe acceleration is the most likely outcome, with inflation an outside risk. But this is an unprecedented situation and sentiment around which way things could go might swing violently as new data comes in.
To put it differently, four months ago everyone thought growth would be weak in the first quarter. Is the consensus more reliable now that everyone thinks growth will strengthen and inflation will remain contained?

We now know that what we got was both two and three, the possibilities that the financial establishment believed were highly unlikely. Consumers pulled back on spending and inflation took off, an almost unbelievable combination.

A month later, on May 24, this newsletter pointed out that although the quarterly survey of the National Association of Business Economists showed economists were growing more optimistic about economic growth this year, the public was growing more pessimistic. And we explained why the public souring on the economy, even though it was mostly among Republicans, was worth paying attention to while the expert opinion was not:

The decline in May was driven by Republicans taking a far more negative view of the economy in May. Gallup scored GOP confidence at negative 54 in May, down from negative 35 in April. Democrat economic confidence slipped only slightly from a positive 31 to a positive 27. While the partisan divide is stark, the May decline cannot really be chalked up to dislike of Biden or the Democrats on the part of Republicans. It's not like conservatives disliked Biden more in May than April. So this likely reflects something actually going on in the economy.

Why did we get this year so right while the establishment media and Wall Street economists got it so wrong? In some sense, the answer is bias. They formulate their forecasts around their political priors. So they incorrectly predicted Trump's tariffs would raise prices and incorrectly predicted Biden's would not. But we have our biases also. The difference is simple: our biases—or, as we like to think of them, our philosophical convictions about economics—are better coordinated with reality than theirs.

Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

 
 

TOP STORY

 
Record Inflation and 95% of Manufacturers Report Supply Chain Disruptions in Kansas City Fed Survey
Ninety-five percent of manufacturers in the Tenth District of the Federal Reserve report that they are experiencing supply chain disruptions and shortages, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The Kansas City Fed said on Thursday the share of manufacturers reporting supply chain disruptions and shortage in September had risen by six percentage points since July of this year, an indication that supply chain problems are worsening. The data come from the Kansas City Fed's monthly manufacturing survey, which covers goods producers in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and portions of western Missouri and northern New Mexico. [Click here for more]
 

IN OTHER STORIES...

Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fell in September as House Affordability Declined
Contract signings for home sales fell an unexpected 2.3 percent in September compared with August, as purchases declined all across the United States. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw contract activity decline month-over-month and year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Compared with a year ago, pending sales are down... [Click here for more]
 
GDP Grows Just 2% in Third Quarter, Falling Short of Diminished Expectations
U.S. economic growth crashed in the third quarter, as the economy grappled with the Delta variant driving a resurgence of Covid-19 infections and supply-chain disruptions. Gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S.—grew at an annualized rate of two percent from July through September, after adjusting for inflation... [Click here for more]
 
Report: McDonald's Raises Prices, Closes Stores as Worker Shortage Continues
McDonald's says they are forced to raise menu prices as worker wages climb, as well as close down some restaurants due to labor shortages and slower service in some locations, according to reports. The burger giant is raising menu prices in order to sustain the rapidly growing costs of supplies and wages, according to the Wall Street Journal. The report indicated that the company had increased salaries by at least... [Click here for more]
 

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You gave 80 persecuted women hope!

webmaster220, through tears one woman told our team that she had learned what it was like to be loved by God. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
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Help The Persecuted


webmaster220,

 

A few weeks ago, I asked you to pray for the 80 Iraqi women, mainly Yazidi and Muslim converts, who were attending our Spiritual Retreat.

 

I'm excited to share that the Lord answered your prayers abundantly!

 

Our team leader Samar asked that I share her gratitude with you:
 

"Thank you for supporting and praying with us for this retreat. Many ladies are suffering tremendously and being persecuted by their families for their faith in Christ. This retreat gave them hope and allowed them to worship freely."

These retreats allow us to invest in the lives of our persecuted brothers and sisters in Christ in life-changing ways.

 
Women worshipping

Retreats are held in secure locations, away from harsh living conditions and the eyes of the secret police, where attendees feel safe and cared for. Attendees are nourished — body and soul—as they participate in intense Bible study, refreshing worship, and learn to have a deeper focus on the love of Christ.

 

One woman who attended this retreat is also living in our nearby Safe House with her family. She was overwhelmed with thankfulness for Help The Persecuted and said her faith is growing and she looks forward to sharing Christ with others.

 

Another woman told our team through tears,

 

"The retreat taught me what it is like to be loved and valued by God and others. Thank you for this opportunity."

 

Time and time again we see that attendees come in broken, weary, fearful — mourning the suffering, trauma, and loss they've experienced.

 

But through God's grace and power, after just a few days, a distinct, palpable transformation occurs. Hope-filled smiles and laughter. Healing of past wounds. Restoration of soul and spirit. A renewed, or a new-found passion for life.

 
Iraq women's retreat

Thank you for your partnership which provides Spiritual Retreats for women like this as you help cover the costs of:

  • Accommodations and meals
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We are excited for future retreats being planned in Turkey and Jordan...with more to come!

 

Joshua Youssef
President and CEO

Help Host More Retreats

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Good News for Life Out of Mason, Ohio

Ken Ham Daily

 
Ken Ham

G'day Webmaster220 Bible,

I have some good news to share with you. Recently I asked all of our supporters to pray and, if possible, for those in the Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana area to travel to Mason, Ohio—about 45 miles from our Creation Museum—to be present and perhaps speak at a city council meeting. This meeting was to determine by vote if Mason was to become a Sanctuary City and criminalize abortion (the murder of children in their mother's wombs) within city limits. And I have good news to share!

Read the blog

Don’t forget to listen to Thursday’s radio program: This week, we're looking at so-called "poor design" in the human body. A common example is the birth canal. You see, as mothers well know, it's painful to have a …

Listen to today's radio broadcast

Sincerely,
Ken Ham

P.S. Check out this related resource from our online store: Fearfully & Wonderfully Made

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KEN HAM is the president/ CEO and founder of Answers in Genesis - U.S. and the highly acclaimed Creation Museum and the new Ark Encounter with over 1 million visitors annually. He has authored over 35 apologetic books and resources with over $3 million books sold and he is one of the most in-demand Christian speakers in North America.


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