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How Supply Chain Woes Caused the November Jobs Shock

                                                           
So why did November's employment report come in so far below expectations?
 
  
Breitbart Business Digest
December 03, 2021
 

Today's Top Stories From the Breitbart News Desk

So why did November's employment report come in so far below expectations?

Economists had forecast that the economy would add more than half a million jobs in November. On Friday, the Department of Labor reported that the actual figure was just 210,000 new positions.

One thing to keep in mind when looking at the headline jobs number is that it is a seasonally adjusted figure. The Department of Labor adjusts the monthly jobs figures to smooth out seasonal changes in hiring to make it easier to compare how the labor market is doing throughout the year.

The Labor Department also releases the unadjusted figures each month. These show that the economy added 778,000 jobs in November, which means the adjustment subtracted 568,000 jobs. To put it another way, the adjustment assumes that the economy would add around 570,000 jobs even if the labor market did not strengthen at all. So only jobs added on top of that figure count as seasonally adjusted job growth.

A big part of that adjustment is in the retail sector, which tends to go on a hiring spree in November as stores staff up for holiday sales. The Labor Department reported that retail employment contracted by 20,000 jobs in November. Before the adjustment, however, the economy added 331,000 jobs. In other words, the adjustment's baseline is an additional 350,000 retail jobs, and November's hiring fell short of that.

This does not necessarily mean that November's jobs numbers were stronger than they appear. Falling short of the seasonal adjustment baseline means that retail employers hired fewer workers than history indicates would have been normal. And the forecasts from economists are for the seasonally adjusted numbers, and there's no doubt November fell short.

There is another factor to consider—one that suggests that retail hiring might actually be stronger than it appears to be. We entered this fall with a very well-publicized shipping and supply chain crisis and a labor shortage. Merchants were encouraged to stock up on goods, consumers were told to do their holiday shopping early, and stores began hiring for holiday shopping early.

Take a look at the unadjusted October retail jobs numbers. Employment in retail expanded 1.4 percent in October. That's slightly below the 2020 figure, when retailers grew payroll by 1.6 percent as the economy reopened. But it is nearly a half a percentage point higher than the average in the five years leading up to the pandemic, when retail employment expanded by 0.9 percent on average.

If we combine October and November hiring, we see that employment in retail expanded by 3.61 percent over the two months. That's below the very strong four percent of last year's reopening bonanza but ahead of the five-year pre-pandemic average of 3.47 percent.

Let's look at the raw numbers. Retailers added 552,100 employees to payrolls in October and November combined. That too is above the prepandemic average of 546,100.

So what seems to have happened is that the supply chain concerns pushed hiring forward on the calendar, leaving fewer spots to fill in November. That's a very similar story to what happened in retail sales, where stronger than expected sales in October appear to have led to weaker than expected sales following Thanksgiving.

Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

 
 

TOP STORY

 
Disaster: U.S. Economy Added Just 210,000 Jobs in November
The U.S. economy added 210,00 jobs in November and the unemployment rate sank to 4.2 percent. This was a far weaker jobs report than expected. Economists had forecast 545,000 positions added to payrolls and an unemployment rate of 4.5 percent, according to Econoday. The unemployment rates for adult men and adult women declined to 4.0 percent. The white unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent and the black unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent. The Hispanic unemployment rate declined to 5.2 percent. There was little change in the unemployment rates for Asians, at 3.8 percent, or teenagers, at 11.2 percent. [Click here for more]
 

IN OTHER STORIES...

Carney: Bidenflation Concealed an October Decline in Factory Orders
Orders for manufactured goods rose 1 percent in October, the Commerce Department said Friday. That beat the consensus estimate for a 0.4 percent rise and has led to lots of cheery headlines about the economy recovering despite the disappointing jobs numbers in November. The estimated decline in durable goods orders was moderated from... [Click here for more]
 
Bidenflation And Broken Supply Chains Afflicted The Services Sector in November
The services sector is under severe stress from inflation and supply chain disarray, data from an industry survey showed Friday. The Institute for Supply Management said Friday that the deliveries component of its purchase manager index for the services sector registered 75.7 for the second consecutive month. That is the second highest reading on record. The highest was April 2020, when many businesses were temporarily shutdown altogether. A higher reading on the... [Click here for more]
 
Job Creators Network Blasts Biden's 'Misleading' Economy Speech: Millions Out of Work, Inflation Whipping Out Wage Growth, Gas Prices Spiking
Alfredo Ortiz, president and CEO of the Job Creators Network, called out President Joe Biden over his speech on the economy following the November jobs report. Ortiz said Biden's speech is evidence of the "complete delusion concerning the actual state of the economy." "Biden continually pats himself on the back as if he's delivering new levels of American prosperity, when in reality he inherited one of the strongest V-shaped recoveries in modern history, and his administration has failed to come close to returning the... [Click here for more]
 
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G'day Webmaster220 Bible,

It's hard to believe Christmas is less than a month away! If you're looking for relevant resources to focus your family's hearts on Christ and what he came to do, you can start today with free Christmas downloads from Dale Mason's popular book The 10 Minute Bible Journey and our Sunday school curriculum, Answers Bible Curriculum (ABC).

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Here’s the Answers with Ken Ham radio program for today: This week we've seen biblical and scientific reasons to reject the big bang. Well, here's one more reason: biblical authority. You see, the Bible is clear on origins. When we …

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P.S. Here’s a resource from our store that relates to today’s radio program: The Lie: Evolution/Millions of Years

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