Good morning! Today: if the US is at war with covid-19 it's losing, what's needed before we can reopen safely, and a crewed NASA launch is set to go ahead amidst the pandemic. Get your friends to sign up here to get The Download every day.
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If America is at war with covid-19, it’s doing a bad job of fighting
Choice of words: Many times during the past few weeks Donald Trump has called the outbreak of covid-19 an “invasion” by an “invisible enemy,” and referred to himself as a “wartime president.” The message that the White House is trying to get across is clear: America is at war with covid-19. But if America is really at war, it does not appear to be winning.
Alternate reality: What would it look like if America was on a real war footing? The first step would have been to properly prepare—and ensure that the equipment and supplies needed to fight a war were in hand. A month ago, there were dire predictions that the US would run out of hospital beds and ventilators. Luckily the US seems to have so far dodged a bullet on that front, apparently due to the effectiveness of widespread social distancing measures. But unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the body armor of the fight against covid-19: personal protective equipment, or PPE. The problem stems from three main causes: A failure to stockpile enough supplies to meet the pandemic-scale demand, a heavy dependence on Chinese manufacturing, and the lack of an authoritative information source that can reveal bottlenecks in critical supply chains.
The coming storm: The ultimate weapon, a vaccine, is many months if not years away.. Once it’s actually developed, it will need to be administered to millions and millions of people in all 50 states. Such a technically and logistically complicated effort would benefit from some sort of cohesive national strategy, even if not the full-blown Manhattan Project-style effort that some envisaged. But the White House’s approach to the pandemic response thus far suggests it won’t jump at the opportunity. Read the full story.
—Mike Orcutt
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The US will need to do 20 million tests a day to reopen safely
The news: A group of experts has produced a plan for the US to reopen its economy safely this summer. However, it’s contingent on doing at least 20 million tests every day, scaling up contact tracing, and ensuring those who need to isolate can be properly supported. The report, produced by 45 cross-disciplinary experts assembled by Harvard University’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, says we need to be testing 5 million a day by early June in order to start reopening the country, increasing to 20 million by mid-summer to fully end the shutdown.
How we get there: The level of testing needed depends on us being able to effectively trace the contacts of those infected with coronavirus, warn those people they’ve been exposed, test them, and isolate everyone who tests positive, the report says. That involves hiring an army of contact tracers—at least another 100,000 people. It also requires us to massively scale up testing by incentivizing the private sector to create new solutions at speed, the authors say. This could be coordinated by a Pandemic Testing Board set up by the federal government given the task of securing adequate testing supply and infrastructure necessary for deployment.
Contingent on support: This plan would avoid the need for endless cycles of opening up then shutting down the economy until we find a vaccine. But it will only succeed with backing from businesses and politicians. Perhaps the awful human toll will help to focus minds: the US has 759,786 confirmed covid-19 cases as of this morning, and 40,683 people have died.
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We can still have nice things
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The top ten must-reads
I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.
1 NASA has announced a crewed SpaceX launch amidst the pandemic 🚀
This is what happens when politicians set tight, arbitrary deadlines. ( TR)
+ A spacecraft has returned an ageing satellite to service for the first time. ( Ars Technica)
2 The tricky math of lifting coronavirus lockdowns
We need a lot more data to work out how much we can safely relax restrictions. ( TR)
+ The virus may be more widespread, and less deadly, than we think. ( TR)
3 Coronavirus deaths are down in New York
Grounds for a little cautious optimism, perhaps. ( AP)
+ New Yorkers can now get married remotely. ( The Hill)
4 The pandemic makes the case for a “public Venmo”
The government needs a better way to send benefits to the people who need them. ( TR)
5 Machine learning could check if you’re social distancing properly at work
Oh good, more workplace surveillance. ( TR)
6 How Carnival cruises helped spread the virus around the world 🚢
It’s facing multiple lawsuits and a criminal probe over its response to outbreaks on its ships. ( Bloomberg)
7 How Britain’s government sleepwalked into a disaster
Scientists’ warnings fell on deaf ears, and thousands of lives may have been lost as a result. ( The Sunday Times $)
8 You’ll buy groceries differently post-pandemic 🛒
The virus is pushing stores online, whether they’re ready or not. ( The Atlantic)
+ An upside: we’re eating more healthily. ( NYT $)
9 The economic crisis will expose corporate fraud
As Buffett says, “you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” ( The Economist $)
10 We need to stop worshipping at the altar of productivity
It is absolutely fine to be no more than “just about coping” right now. ( Wired $)
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“Parents can be angry. How do you explain to them that you can take your dog out, but not your child?”
—Diego Figuera, a psychiatrist in Madrid who works with children, tells the New York Times there are growing calls for Spain to ease its lockdown restrictions, which are the strictest in Europe.
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