Why it’s too early to start giving out “immunity passports”

Covid-19 antibody testing needs to get a lot better, and so does our understanding of immunity, before people can start leaving the house once again.

Sponsored by Mimecast The Download Your daily dose of what’s up in emerging technology 04.10.20 .  morning! Today we’ve got a special antibody-themed newsletter for you, as we discuss new efforts to jumpstart a coronavirus “immunity passport” program to open the economy back up, and what the results of tests in one German town suggest about our understanding of covid-19. Get your friends to sign up here to get The Download every day.    Also, The Download will be off Monday, April 13, and return the following day. If you haven’t already done so, we encourage you to subscribe to the Coronavirus Tech Report, which will go out as normal on Monday. Immunity passport, anyone? Not so fast. The problem, and a possible solution: We can’t keep up social distancing efforts forever. Communities around the world are looking for ways to safely leave the house and return to work and school. One potential solution is to test for covid-19 antibodies in the population and give people who test positive an “immunity passport” that grants them their freedom from lockdown. Several countries, including Germany and the UK, are considering such programs. Why antibodies: About six to 10 days after exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes covid-19, the body begins to develop antibodies that bind and react to proteins found on the virus’s surface. In someone who has survived infection the blood should possess these antibodies—though it’s not known how long they continue to be produced once someone has recovered. If antibodies are present, a person should be immune. Except it’s not that simple: Interpreting the results of an immunity test is far from straightforward. We still know very little about what human immunity to the disease looks like, how long it lasts, whether an immune response prevents reinfection, and whether you might still be contagious even after symptoms have dissipated and you’ve developed antibodies. Moreover, the tests themselves have so far been fraught with inaccuracy. Until they improve, the tests can’t be relied on as the basis of an immunity passport program. Read the full story. Crucial new data on prevalence of the virus The news: A new report shows that in the German town of Gangelt, near the border with the Netherlands, 14% of residents have been infected with coronavirus. The findings come after 500 residents had their blood tested for covid-19 antibodies.  Why this matters: Germany was among the first European countries to report an outbreak of the virus, and Gangelt was particularly hard hit. If lots of people there have already been exposed, they may be closer to attaining herd immunity—and the end of the surge of new infections. But it would also mean the virus is spreading rapidly, with a large number of cases going unreported, probably because people never realized they had the bug. The 14% figure is both large and small. It's much larger than the number of confirmed cases would suggest. But it also means the vast majority of people could still be susceptible to the disease. A word of caution: The new data is incredibly preliminary, and the results should certainly not be extrapolated to the rest of Germany or the world (for example, Gangelt's death rate from covid-19 sits at 0.37%, while Germany overall is seeing a 2% death rate so far). And as mentioned above, immunity testing is still fraught with problems that make results difficult to interpret properly. Learn more about what the data can and cannot tell us.  — Antonio Regalado We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction in these weird times. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or tweet 'em at me.)   + No matter where you are, it’s always a good idea to spread your vibes.   + The extremely talented Phoebe Bridgers is doing a stay-at-home live concert at 4:00pm ET today.   + Celebrities take note: if you’re going to post during the pandemic, post like Diane Keaton.   + Slow TV on YouTube is a balm for your stir-crazy anxiety.   + You don’t have to play Animal Crossing or know who Roald is to enjoy this irreverent Twitter feed.  Sponsor Message Fully Featured Web Security Service for 90 Days – On Us Remote working is skyrocketing in these trying times, and we want to help protect your employees from web-based cyberattacks. Let us help you with a fully featured 90-day Web Security service, on us. Sign up here now. The top ten must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1. How the pandemic is accelerating the takeover of automation. (New York Times) 2. Facebook and Google are helping the CDC forecast the coronavirus outbreak in the US. (TR) 3. Chinese doctors in Wuhan tried using chloroquine against coronavirus, and say there’s no strong evidence it works. (Wall Street Journal)   + Why does the president keep pushing the malaria drug as a coronavirus treatment? (The Atlantic)   + Which covid-19 drugs work best? (TR) 4. Genomic analysis shows that many of the cases that started New York’s outbreak came from Europe. (New York Times) 5. US authorities are trying to combat pandemic-related scams online. (The Guardian) 6. Three American communities are adopting an MIT-built coronavirus contact tracing app. (Reuters)   + The head of the CDC says “very aggressive” contact tracing is needed to stop coronavirus in the US. (NPR) 7. Surviving the ICU is only the first step in a long journey of recovery from a severe coronavirus infection. (Slate) 8. Thousands of coronavirus tests are going unused in US labs. (Nature) 9. Voting by mail is far from perfect, but it’s essential during a pandemic. (Wired)   + America might survive coronavirus. But will the election? (TR) 10. How the richest economy in the world failed to prepare hospitals with the most basic healthcare equipment. (The New Yorker) Tickets are on sale for EmTech Next 2020 EmTech Next is MIT Technology Review’s virtual conference on the impact of technologies that are driving digital business. Register today. Quote of the day "We can stop [the virus]. Stop moving. Simply stop moving." —Silveria Jacobs, the prime minister of the small Caribbean nation Sint Maarten (St. Martin), in a stern public message to the country’s residents. Top image credit: AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko Send good vibes to neel.patel@technologyreview.com. Thanks for reading! —Neel Was this newsletter forwarded to you, and you'd like to see more? Sign up for free Get unlimited access to online stories. 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We feel this one could save some lives about the Red Cross