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Tuesday, January 19, 2021

What fire modeling tells us about the future of California’s forests

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Fire math
01.19.21
Good morning! Today: what fire modeling tells us about the future of California's forests, and why Silicon Valley is bracing for Biden. Get your friends to sign up here to get The Download every day. 

What fire modeling tells us about the future of California’s forests
 

At the height of California’s worst wildfire season on record, Geoff Marshall looked down at his computer and realized that an enormous blaze was about to take firefighters by surprise.

Marshall runs the fire prediction team at the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection which gives him an increasingly difficult job: anticipating the behavior of wildfires that become less predictable every year.

At that particular moment in California last September, several unprecedented fires were burning simultaneously. But just as concerning to Marshall as their size was that the biggest fires often behaved in unexpected ways, making it harder to forecast their movements.

The work of predicting how fires spread had long been a matter of hand-drawn ellipses and models so slow analysts set them before bed and hoped they were done in the morning. Now, they use tools that funnel data from dozens of distinct feeds: weather forecasts, satellite images, and measures of moisture in a given area.

The Creek Fire was a case study in the challenge facing today’s fire analysts, who are trying to predict the movements of fires that are far more severe than those seen just a decade ago. Since we understand so little about how fire works, they’re using mathematical tools built on outdated assumptions, as well as technological platforms that fail to capture the uncertainty in their work.

Getting ahead of the most destructive fires will require not simply new computational tools but a sweeping change in how forests are managed. Read the full story.

—Saul Elbein

This article is part of our Big Story collection—some of our most ambitious, important reporting. You can see some more from the series here. It is also subscriber-only. But the good news is that subscriptions start at just $50 a year. Why not treat yourself

We can still have nice things

A place for comfort, fun and distraction in these weird times. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or tweet 'em at me.)

  + Someone strapped a GoPro on a model train and filmed their cat with it.
  + A funny tale about an anaesthetist taking a shower. 
  + An epic obstacle course for a hamster.
  + Animals interrupting wildlife photographers (thank you Patrick for alerting me to this GIFT).
  + Montrealers take snowmen seriously.
  + Anyone remember the Led Zeppelin parrot? Damn funny.
  + Lox that's ready in just an hour.

Sponsor Message

Some people might not associate the word “trust” with artificial intelligence (AI).
 
Stefan Jockusch, Vice President of Strategy at Siemens Digital Industries Software, is not one of them.

AI can improve production speed, take away tedious tasks from creative engineers, and make products customers want, explains Jockusch.

He gives the example of Apple’s iPhones and its facial recognition software—technology that has been tested “millions and millions of times” and produced just a few failures.
  
Listen to the podcast here.

The top ten must-reads

I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.

1 Silicon Valley is bracing for Biden
Regulations are coming. And not a minute too soon. (WP $)
 
2 We need an Operation Warp Speed for climate change
And, under Biden, we might actually get one. (Wired $)
  + Meet Joe Biden's science team. (Forbes)
  + Pledges to reach net-zero emissions rely on tech that doesn't exist yet. (Wired UK)
  + France's central bank said it will start limiting its investments in fossil fuels. (Reuters)
  + Corporations are pouring money into carbon dioxide removal. That's a problem. (NYT $) 

3 When did social media algorithms take over the world?
A timely reminder that it didn't—and doesn't—have to be like this. (WSJ $)
  + Misinformation dropped dramatically after Twitter banned Trump. (WP $)
  + Why t-shirts promoting the Capitol riot are still selling online. (NYT $) 

4 What went wrong with the early response to the pandemic
A WHO panel set out how country after country made the same mistakes, over and over again. (NYT $)
  + More than four million people in the UK have had their first dose of a covid-19 vaccine. (BBC)
  + Experts predict that deaths will hit half a million in February in the US. (The Guardian

5 Parler is (sort of) back
Thanks to a Russian tech company. But it's a shadow of its former self, for now. (Reuters)
  + How Parler's rise led to its downfall. (The Atlantic)
  + Telegram says it has taken down hundreds of public calls for violence in the US in the last week. (The Verge

6 The QAnon meme queen
A significant minority of Americans have essentially lost touch with reality. It'll be a hell of a task to bring them back. (NYT $)
 
7 New batteries can charge a vehicle in five minutes 🚗
That's the same amount of time you'd spend filling one with fuel. (The Guardian)
  + These companies want to charge your car while you drive it. (WSJ $) 

8 This wristband tells your boss if you are unhappy
I simply refuse to believe this is the best way to go about this. (BBC)
  + Microsoft Teams is insanely invasive. (ZDNet

 
9 Could ketamine help treat mental illnesses?
Recreational drugs are increasingly entering the psychiatric mainstream. (Gizmodo)
 
10 Just let your kids play Fortnite 🎮
Worrying about screen time is SO 2019. (The Verge)

In just 3 weeks, join us at Future Compute, our virtual conference on intelligent computing.

Top executives from Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, IBM, and Microsoft will share their perspectives on how the convergence of 5G, AI, and IoT is creating new opportunities and what this means for how business gets done. Register now.

Quote of the day

"This is a deception on a national scale."

—Oregon Governor Kate Brown expresses fury at discovering that there is no federal reserve of covid-19 vaccine doses, despite the Trump administration indicating it would start shipping supplies last week.

Charlotte Jee

Top image credit: David Ryder | Getty Images

Please send snowmen to hi@technologyreview.com.

Follow me on Twitter at @charlottejee. Thanks for reading!

—Charlotte

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Watch "Passion - How Great Is Our God (World Edition) [feat. Chris Tomlin]" on YouTube



43,936,101 views
Apr 12, 2013


I'm just a nobody
720,280 views • Sep 3, 2020







Make-A-Fort Snapwize Inc.
Christianbook - Everything Christian for Less
If you are wondering where the pages that contained the words "excerpt", "Introducing" or other words indicating I was quoting a book have all gone, I migrated all of them over to Posts and Posted them all on August 18 and August 19 2024. I did that so you could use the search widget that is built in to the blog on the upper right hand corner. You will be happy to know that there are more of them than just the batch that were migrated, there were also lots of posts that contained the same words that did not have to be migrated over, they were there all along. I am really enjoying doing introductions and excerpts because it really makes for powerful and fascinating reading when I do them. You get the feeling you are in a bookstore holding a book in your hand looking at the table of contents and deciding whether or not to buy the book.


The following website is called Indie Reader and the founder is Amy Edelman . it is an Arts & Humanities Website (the company is called Edelman Books/Media)
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About Me

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Dallas Theological Seminary Fighting Human Trafficking video on youtube

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Human Trafficking Victims Program Introduction


She said two urls that are no longer the urls to use.
The first one, www.dhs.gov/humantrafficking automatically becomes www.dhs.gov/blue-campaign
The facebook site was the old site which does not automatically update to the following, the new facebook site is http://facebook.com/dhsbluecampaign
Click this link to search all of the DHS site for mentions of the Blue Campaign


The Ultimate Summary of C.S. Lewis

Kevin Livermore embedded Podcast Till We Have Faces. CS Lewis’ favorite book that he wrote

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Sky Spills Over


2,380,500 views May 27, 2015 This song is on the album "Sovereign" From Michael W. Smith
Sky Spills Over · Michael W. Smith
Sovereign
℗ 2014 The MWS Group, under exclusive license to Sparrow Records
Released on: 2014-01-01
Producer: Christopher Stevens
Composer Lyricist: Michael W. Smith
Composer Lyricist: Christopher Stevens
Composer Lyricist: Ryan Smith

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Wow. You must be kidding me! This is a way for the blog to really begin to pay commissions!


This email to the blog is dated 6/16/2024 but I did not read the email until today 7/30/2024

Sun, Jun 16, 12:12 PM

Consumer Cellular
Dear Richard,
Welcome to the Consumer Cellular Affiliate Program! We are excited to have you become a part of our very successful program.
CONTENT
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As a result of the above acceptance letter I have generated the following ads and information links:

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