What fire modeling tells us about the future of California’s forests

Silicon Valley is bracing for new regulations under Biden

Sponsored by Siemens Digital Industries Software The Download Your daily dose of what's up in emerging technology Fire math 01.19.21 Good morning! Today: what fire modeling tells us about the future of California's forests, and why Silicon Valley is bracing for Biden. Get your friends to sign up here to get The Download every day.  What fire modeling tells us about the future of California’s forests   At the height of California’s worst wildfire season on record, Geoff Marshall looked down at his computer and realized that an enormous blaze was about to take firefighters by surprise. Marshall runs the fire prediction team at the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection which gives him an increasingly difficult job: anticipating the behavior of wildfires that become less predictable every year. At that particular moment in California last September, several unprecedented fires were burning simultaneously. But just as concerning to Marshall as their size was that the biggest fires often behaved in unexpected ways, making it harder to forecast their movements. The work of predicting how fires spread had long been a matter of hand-drawn ellipses and models so slow analysts set them before bed and hoped they were done in the morning. Now, they use tools that funnel data from dozens of distinct feeds: weather forecasts, satellite images, and measures of moisture in a given area. The Creek Fire was a case study in the challenge facing today’s fire analysts, who are trying to predict the movements of fires that are far more severe than those seen just a decade ago. Since we understand so little about how fire works, they’re using mathematical tools built on outdated assumptions, as well as technological platforms that fail to capture the uncertainty in their work. Getting ahead of the most destructive fires will require not simply new computational tools but a sweeping change in how forests are managed. Read the full story. —Saul Elbein This article is part of our Big Story collection—some of our most ambitious, important reporting. You can see some more from the series here. It is also subscriber-only. But the good news is that subscriptions start at just $50 a year. Why not treat yourself?  We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction in these weird times. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or tweet 'em at me.)   + Someone strapped a GoPro on a model train and filmed their cat with it.   + A funny tale about an anaesthetist taking a shower.    + An epic obstacle course for a hamster.   + Animals interrupting wildlife photographers (thank you Patrick for alerting me to this GIFT).   + Montrealers take snowmen seriously.   + Anyone remember the Led Zeppelin parrot? Damn funny.   + Lox that's ready in just an hour. Sponsor Message With trust in AI, manufacturers can build better Some people might not associate the word “trust” with artificial intelligence (AI).   Stefan Jockusch, Vice President of Strategy at Siemens Digital Industries Software, is not one of them. AI can improve production speed, take away tedious tasks from creative engineers, and make products customers want, explains Jockusch. He gives the example of Apple’s iPhones and its facial recognition software—technology that has been tested “millions and millions of times” and produced just a few failures.    Listen to the podcast here. The top ten must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 Silicon Valley is bracing for Biden Regulations are coming. And not a minute too soon. (WP $)   2 We need an Operation Warp Speed for climate change And, under Biden, we might actually get one. (Wired $)   + Meet Joe Biden's science team. (Forbes)   + Pledges to reach net-zero emissions rely on tech that doesn't exist yet. (Wired UK)   + France's central bank said it will start limiting its investments in fossil fuels. (Reuters)   + Corporations are pouring money into carbon dioxide removal. That's a problem. (NYT $)  3 When did social media algorithms take over the world? A timely reminder that it didn't—and doesn't—have to be like this. (WSJ $)   + Misinformation dropped dramatically after Twitter banned Trump. (WP $)   + Why t-shirts promoting the Capitol riot are still selling online. (NYT $)  4 What went wrong with the early response to the pandemic A WHO panel set out how country after country made the same mistakes, over and over again. (NYT $)   + More than four million people in the UK have had their first dose of a covid-19 vaccine. (BBC)   + Experts predict that deaths will hit half a million in February in the US. (The Guardian)  5 Parler is (sort of) back Thanks to a Russian tech company. But it's a shadow of its former self, for now. (Reuters)   + How Parler's rise led to its downfall. (The Atlantic)   + Telegram says it has taken down hundreds of public calls for violence in the US in the last week. (The Verge)  6 The QAnon meme queen A significant minority of Americans have essentially lost touch with reality. It'll be a hell of a task to bring them back. (NYT $)   7 New batteries can charge a vehicle in five minutes 🚗 That's the same amount of time you'd spend filling one with fuel. (The Guardian)   + These companies want to charge your car while you drive it. (WSJ $)  8 This wristband tells your boss if you are unhappy I simply refuse to believe this is the best way to go about this. (BBC)   + Microsoft Teams is insanely invasive. (ZDNet)    9 Could ketamine help treat mental illnesses? Recreational drugs are increasingly entering the psychiatric mainstream. (Gizmodo)   10 Just let your kids play Fortnite 🎮 Worrying about screen time is SO 2019. (The Verge) In just 3 weeks, join us at Future Compute, our virtual conference on intelligent computing. Top executives from Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, IBM, and Microsoft will share their perspectives on how the convergence of 5G, AI, and IoT is creating new opportunities and what this means for how business gets done. Register now. Quote of the day "This is a deception on a national scale." —Oregon Governor Kate Brown expresses fury at discovering that there is no federal reserve of covid-19 vaccine doses, despite the Trump administration indicating it would start shipping supplies last week. Top image credit: David Ryder | Getty Images Please send snowmen to hi@technologyreview.com. Follow me on Twitter at @charlottejee. Thanks for reading! —Charlotte Was this newsletter forwarded to you, and you'd like to see more? Sign up for free Don't settle for half the story. 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