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Friday, July 16, 2021

Inflation: What the Public Buys and When

                                                           
The clearest thing established by the White House's attempt to downplay the swift rise in inflation is that the Biden administration is increasingly out of touch with the American people.
 
  
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July 16, 2021
 

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The clearest thing established by the White House's attempt to downplay the swift rise in inflation is that the Biden administration is increasingly out of touch with the American people. One of their principal arguments for not worrying about inflation was that a large portion of the rise in the Consumer Price Index was driven by just a few items related to the reopening and the big drive up in used car prices. And then, if you control for "base effects" and ignore food and energy, core inflation was just 3.1 percent, the Council of Economic Advisers tweeted this week.

Well, yes. We could do one better. If you ignore all the things that went up in price, there's no inflation at all. Prices are falling if you ignore all those that held steady as well.

The thing about core inflation is that it overlooks the necessities of life. But food and fuel make up a huge part of household budgets; and when those things go up, the American public feels it. Bacon, for instance, is up almost 90 cents since Biden took office. Milk is up 5.6 percent. Used cars and gasoline are up by around 45 percent from a year ago. Major appliances are up 13.7 percent, and laundry machines are up nearly 30 percent.

In any case, this is an abuse of the concept of core inflation. The purpose of excluding food and fuel from core inflation is to smooth out month-to-month volatility, not to disguise long term trends to higher prices. And the University of Michigan's survey of consumers for July showed on Friday that the American people are not buying it, so to speak. Complaints about the prices of houses, autos, and durable goods are at their highest level ever, the survey's chief economist Richard Curtin said on Friday.

Professor Curtin helpfully explains that there are two phases that occur when inflationary psychology takes hold. In phase one, the public pulls back from purchases, aghast at the high prices, hoping prices come back down, and planning to save up money as a "precautionary hedge." That seems to be about where we are now, with consumers holding back some buying power. In phase two, consumers panic and decide to go on a buying spree in an attempt to snap up products before they become even more expensive. That, of course, creates even more inflation. According to Professor Curtin, who has been running the consumer sentiment survey for decades and might know a thing or two about such matters, phase two will begin early next year if inflation is still running high.

So there's your deadline for "transitory" inflation. If it is still going into next year, buckle up because the ride's about to get rough.

Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

 
 

TOP STORY

 
Consumer Sentiment Posts Shock Decline, Inflation Complaints Hit All-Time High
The American consumer is more worried about the rising prices of big-ticket items than ever before, the University of Michigan's bi-monthly survey of consumers showed Friday. Overall consumer sentiment fell 5.5 percent in early July as Americans grew less satisfied about current conditions and less optimistic about the future. Economists had expected the preliminary July number to rise to 87 from 85.5. A big driver of this decline was the unexpectedly strong rise in inflationary pressures as demand for goods and services has surged faster than supplies of products and labor have expanded. Inflation has replaced unemployment as a top concern for consumers. [Click here for more]
 

IN OTHER STORIES...

No Silver Lining: Wages Fell While Inflation Soared This Spring
A rapid rise in prices over the past year has not been matched by wage gains, indicating American workers are losing ground, data from the Department of Labor showed Friday. Median weekly earnings of the nation's 113.6 million full-time wage and salary workers were $990 in the... [Click here for more]
 
Bidenflation: Bacon Hits Highest Price Ever
It's getting expensive to bring home the bacon. The average cost of a pound of bacon in the United States is almost 0.90 cents from the beginning of the Biden administration, according to data from... [Click here for more]
 
#Bidenflation: Cost of Gas, Used Cars Up 45%, Car Rentals 88%
Nearly all Americans expect the inflation under Joe Biden's presidency will worsen still, even as the cost of gas and used cars is already up by 45 percent, and bacon up by 8.4 percent, the Washington Examiner reported Thursday. "The hashtag #Bidenflation has been trending recently," wrote Washington Secrets columnist Paul Bedard, noting a new survey from Skynova, an online invoicing firm that found 88 percent of people... [Click here for more]
 
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