Thursday, August 19, 2021

Is Florida’s COVID-19 spike seasonal?

 
 This week:  Is Florida in its COVID season? ... Vietnam and Afghanistan: Deconstructing the comparison ... Trump never said he "trusted" the Taliban ... What you need to know about boosters
A weekly note from the editor-in-chief of 
 
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (AP)

Ask PolitiFact: Is Florida's COVID-19 spike a result of seasonality?

As the numbers of new COVID-19 cases rise in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis has said it's to be expected — that it's part of a seasonal pattern.

"We have a summer season here, just like last year. It started a little later this year. So you're going to have higher prevalence for the rest of July, probably into August," DeSantis said July 21. 

Critics argue that it's the governor's policies that are fueling Florida's rising cases. He's banned local governments from setting pandemic restrictions, opposed vaccine mandates and opposed requiring masking indoors.

We didn't rate DeSantis's claim because there remains a good bit of uncertainty about COVID seasonality. Some experts said there appears to be a seasonal component to COVID-19, but not the way DeSantis describes it. They said that data suggests that cases, deaths and other epidemiological variables rise during winter, not during summer. 

Respiratory viruses, like the influenza, peak in winter, said Jill Roberts, an associate professor at the University of South Florida's college of public health. It's the delta variant of the coronavirus that is currently spreading worldwide and causing outbreaks regardless of season.

"It is the increased transmissibility of this strain that is causing the cases, irrespective of the weather," she said.

DeSantis doesn't dispute that COVID-19 can spread year-round, said spokesperson Christina Pushaw. But she said that a seasonal pattern is the "root cause" of the current spike in Florida.

"There is some speculation that COVID infections rise as people spend more time indoors in summer in the South, because of the extreme heat at this time of year," she said. "We know COVID spreads much more easily indoors than outdoors."

One study on the seasonality of COVID-19, cited by Pushaw as backup for DeSantis' statements, highlighted five countries of different climates and latitudes: Canada, Germany, India, Ethiopia and Chile.

In Canada, Germany and Chile, COVID-19 incidence peaked in their respective winter months. In India and Ethiopia, COVID-19 appeared to have peaked during the summer, "specifically at the time of the monsoons when the specific humidity was at its highest."

The researchers suggested that air drying capacity and ultraviolet radiation "are likely environmental determinants of COVID-19 spread and its seasonality." They said COVID-19 spread appears lowest at high temperatures, and peak spread happens at somewhat average temperatures, "and the relationship is altogether inconsistent."

Researchers said they did not consider the effects of climate control such as heating and air conditioning, "which may also influence the seasonality" of viral respiratory diseases.

Their findings didn't entirely align with DeSantis' argument. Overall, researchers said that the spread of COVID-19 cannot be described by environmental factors alone.

"The spread of COVID-19 is largely shaped by several factors like population density, social distancing, international travel routes, school closures, event cancellations, mask mandates and hygiene," said the study, published in May.

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The Latest from PolitiFact

  • On Donald Trump trusting the Taliban. Occupy Democrats said that Trump in 2020 said he "trusted the Taliban and then set in motion an even earlier exit" from Afghanistan. We rated that Half True. We found no statements in which Trump said he trusted the Taliban. Trump signed a deal with the Taliban that, subject to conditions, would have resulted in the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan by May 2021, before Biden's withdrawal of the troops.

  • Trump team played role in releasing Taliban leader. An Instagram post said, "Guy next to @mikepompeo here in November of 2020 is the guy the Trump administration helped get out of jail in 2018 and who is now the 'president' of Afghanistan." We rated this Mostly True. As secretary of state, Mike Pompeo tweeted a photo of himself at negotiations with senior Taliban official Abdul Ghani Baradar. The U.S. envoy chosen by Trump publicly confirmed that he requested Baradar's release from prison in Pakistan. However, it's too early to say that Baradar will be "president" of Afghanistan, since no such decision has been publicly announced.

  • Do solar farms kill birds? In an attack on the Biden administration's environmental policies, U.S. Rep. Louis Gohmert, R-Texas, claimed hundreds and thousands of "flamers" die from solar farms. We rated this Half True. Birds have been found to ignite after flying over solar plants that use concentrated solar power (They're called "streamers," not "flamers.") However, most solar farms in the U.S. use photovoltaic panels, which have not been found to cause birds to die in this manner. Gohmert's claim ignores findings that show significantly more birds die from fossil fuel production or colliding with buildings each year.
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Vietnam and Afghanistan: Different wars, similar endings?

Over the weekend, we heard media reports compare Kabul to Saigon over and over. 

The logic of that comparison might be unclear to millions of Americans who weren't yet born when Saigon fell. The common threads of the Vietnam War and the war in Afghanistan are defeat, a heavy human and financial toll, and abandoned allies. 

But since no two wars are ever identical, there are both similarities and important differences in how they ended.

Our special report by Louis Jacobson and Jon Greenberg looked at those contrasts. I was surprised to learn that in Vietnam, South Vietnam forces held out for well over a year against North Vietnamese fighters. By contrast, the Afghan military succumbed to the Taliban within a few weeks.  

Read our full report to catch up on both history and recent events

Think you can determine fact from fiction?

We invite you to participate in our free online course How to Spot Misinformation Online to learn how to recognize health misinformation on the Internet, with an emphasis on COVID-19 vaccines. This short training will have you feeling more confident finding facts on Facebook and other social media platforms. Plus, special guests Christiane Amanpour and Joan Lunden will share media literacy tips before you put your new skills to the test. Enroll today. 

How to Spot Misinformation Online is made possible thanks to Facebook and AARP.

PolitiFact partners with ASU, moves DC office

PolitiFact's office in Washington, D.C. is moving, but we're not going far. PolitiFact will move its offices to Arizona State University's campus in the heart of Washington in a unique collaboration that will expand training in fact-checking journalism, create a new website to fact-check Arizona politicians, and grow the Poynter Institute's teaching footprint in the nation's capital. (Poynter is the owner of PolitiFact.)

The Pulitzer Prize-winning digital fact-checking organization has long been rating the accuracy of claims by elected officials from Washington offices on Connecticut Avenue. The new physical presence at ASU's nearby location allows for greater visibility, plus access to the university's cutting-edge technology, enhanced research, curriculum development, innovative teaching and event space.

"Our alliance with ASU and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication is full of possibilities to elevate the craft, grow the next generation of journalists, and bring these important brands together in service to democracy," said Poynter President Neil Brown. "The public needs access to credible, factual information now more than ever. Together, we'll leverage resources and expertise for journalists to best serve their communities."

Read all about it at Poynter.org

How to read this newsletter

I was asked recently to describe what people get when they read this newsletter. My hope: A quick summary of PolitiFact's best work from the previous week. 

I start the newsletter with a condensed version of our most interesting or topic story of the week. Then I give you the top three rated fact-checks of the week, typically from politicians or on issues of the day.

I'll also summarize other interesting PolitiFact stories, give you news about fact-checking journalism, and point to the best of other coverage on evidence and facts.

I wrap up the newsletter with quick links and our "Pants on Fire" fact-check of the week.

I hope you like this newsletter as much as I like writing it! As always, send me your feedback; I include my email address at the end of every email.  

Quick links to more fact-checks & reports 

Do you smell smoke? 

Here's your Pants on Fire fact-check of the week: 

It cost the University of Wisconsin "$50k (your tax dollars)" to remove a rock considered by some a symbol of racism.

See what else we've rated Pants on Fire this week. 
Have questions or ideas for our coverage? Send me an email at holan@politifact.com. Put "Fact-checking" in the subject line.

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PolitiFact Editor-in-Chief 
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