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Wednesday, September 22, 2021

The Taper is Coming! The Taper is Coming!

Get ready for the taper. That was the message from Jerome Powell and company at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting Wednesday.
 
  
Breitbart Business Digest
September 22, 2021

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Get ready for the taper.

That was the message from Jerome Powell and company at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting Wednesday. The Fed said that barring any unforeseen negative developments—perhaps a worse than expected hit to the labor market from the Delta variant, a financial crisis arising from China, or a surprise further deterioration of supply chains—reducing the level of its bond purchases will be warranted soon. That all but assures that the Fed will announce the taper at its next meeting in November and begin it shortly afterward.

It is remarkable how little the Fed has been affected by actual economic data this year. The Fed first promised to keep up the bond purchases until "substantial further progress" was made toward the goals of maximum employment and price stability back in December 2020, when the unemployment rate was at 6.7 percent and the Consumer Price Index was running at 1.2 percent year over year. The forecasts of Fed officials had inflation running at 1.8 percent by the end of 2021 and unemployment at 5 percent. The economy was forecast to reach a growth rate of 4.2 percent.

It turned out that we got far more growth early this year, unemployment fell by more than expected, and inflation picked up pace far more than expected. The Fed now sees GDP growing 5.9 percent, unemployment falling to 4.8 percent, and inflation at 4.2 percent.

In other words, we reached the goal of "substantial further progress" long ago, and the Fed did nothing. Instead, it stuck to what many assumed was its original time table of beginning the taper in late 2021. The fact that the Fed claimed its policy was data-dependent but it now appears to be calendar-based may wind up undermining the Fed's credibility.

That credbility may be tested sooner rather than later. Powell has emphasized that the taper will not necessarily lead directly to rate hikes. But markets do not quite buy that, and instead expect that rate hikes will follow once the bond buying program is wound down. The Fed's insistence that it will not raise rates until the data demand it is made less credible by its willingness to ignore the economic data this year.

Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

 
 

TOP STORY

 
Fed Forecasts Higher Unemployment, Worse Inflation, Lower Growth
The economy looks significantly worse now than it did three months ago. Federal Reserve officials downgraded their expectations for the economy, lowering their forecasts for growth and raising forecasts for unemployment and inflation, according to materials released Wednesday at the conclusion of the Fed's two-day monetary policy meeting. The new projections show the median expectation is for the economy to grow at an inflation-adjusted 5.9 percent this year, down from an expectation for seven percent growth at the June meeting. [Click here for more]
 

IN OTHER STORIES...

Fed Signals 'Taper' Coming Soon, Indicates Rate Hike Could Come Next Year
The Federal Reserve said that a reduction of the size of its monthly bond purchases may "soon be warranted" if the economy continues to progress as expected and the forecasts of Fed officials moved the first rate hike forward from 2023 to 2022. Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen, the Fed said in a statement at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. The Fed credited this strength to progress on... [Click here for more]
 
Biden Pushes Forward with Plan to Put 30% of U.S. Land Off Limits, Including Private Property
President Joe Biden is pushing forward on an executive order calling for 30 percent of U.S. land be "conserved" — up from the 13 percent that are national parks and other federal holdings — including private property. And while environmentalists want even more restrictions, Republicans and Americans whose livelihood depends on land are strongly opposed to what they see as a land grab by the federal government. "This '30×30' goal has received a great deal of attention in farming and ranching communities across the country," American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall wrote in April. "America's agriculturalists are asking whether their... [Click here for more]
 
Existing Home Sales Fall as Bidenflation Pushes First Time Buyers Out of Market
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell in August as prices climbed to record highs and first-time purchases plunged, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. Total existing-home sales dropped 2.0 percent from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of... [Click here for more]
 
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