Today's Top Stories From the Breitbart News Desk
Inflation is definitely resurgent. This week the Federal Reserve banks of New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City all released their monthly surveys of manufacturers. The surveys showed robust demand and price hikes near or breaking records. The Philadelphia Fed's read of prices received rose to its highest level since 1974, while the New York Fed's version broke its all-time record.
One result of this is that the surge in retail sales reported this week is likely concealing a decline when adjusted for inflation. Indeed, we're seeing that real economic activity is drifting lower in a number of areas due to prices and shortages. For example, housing starts dipped in October despite robust demand, likely because of difficulty in obtaining materials and labor. Evidence that this is a supply problem comes from the fact that permit applications jumped higher than expected and home builder confidence rose.
The American Farm Bureau reports that the price of a typical Thanksgiving meal will be 14 percent more expensive this year than last. The average price is now $53.31, a record high and a big reversal of the trend that saw the price of Thanksgiving falling most years since 2015. In fact, in 2018, the price had fallen below 2010, and it rose by just a penny in 2019 to $48.90.
Despite high and rising inflation, the House passed the Biden administration's enormous deficit spending bill Friday morning. The CBO says it adds $160 billion to the deficit over the next ten years, but that number is artificially depressed by the gimmick of "sunsetting" expensive programs after a few years. A better view of the true cost of the bill can be seen through the five-year window, where it adds $750 billion. The fate of the bill in the U.S. Senate remains unclear.
Next week, the government releases its second estimate of third-quarter GDP. Economists expect an upward revision from two percent to 2.2 percent. We'll also get the October read of the Personal Consumption Price Index, the Commerce Department produced inflation gauge that the Fed considers a better measure than the more familiar Consumer Price Index out of the Labor Department. This is expected to jump from 4.4 percent in September to 5.1 percent. Core PCE inflation is expected to rise to 4.1 percent from 3.6 percent.
– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network
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