The October Shopping Surprise

                                                           

Americans went on something of a shopping spree in October. Economists had predicted retail sales would rise by one percent compared with the previous month, an acceleration of the pace of spending growth from the 0.7 percent gain reported in September.     November 16, 2021   Today's Top Stories From the Breitbart News Desk Americans went on something of a shopping spree in October. Economists had predicted retail sales would rise by one percent compared with the previous month, an acceleration of the pace of spending growth from the 0.7 percent gain reported in September. On Tuesday, however, the Department of Commerce said that spending had leaped up 1.8 percent from the previous month. What's more, the September figure was revised up a tenth of a point. The framing from the Associated Press of this news was typical of the establishment media's weird reaction. "Defying inflation, Americans ramped up spending last month," the AP headline declared. A better interpretation would be to say that Americans ramped up spending because of inflation. After all, with prices soaring on almost everything, Americans had little choice but to spend more or cut back. Spending at grocery stores, for example, rose 1.1 percent not because Americans were defying inflation but because groceries were more expensive. This misreading of inflationary spending activity as consumer confidence leads to further mistakes. "Yet the October gain the government reported Tuesday was solid enough for most economists to anticipate holiday shopping jumping by a record amount this year," the AP reported. It strikes us as more likely that the October gain is evidence that inflation and threatened shortages have pulled forward shopping. Waiting another month to buy Christmas gifts means higher prices and less selection. The word is out: buy early. If we're right about shopping being pulled forward, the traditional shopping season could be weaker than expected. Raising expectations now based on October purchases practically guarantees a disappointment when the final tally is taken. If the U.S. does manage to avoid the sort of Covid infection resurgence now hitting Germany, it is possible consumer sentiment will improve as the Delta wave fades into the review mirror. Warmer than expected weather, which will keep home heating costs down, could give a boost to holiday cheer. So a strong holiday shopping season is not completely off the table; it's just far less likely than the naive readings of the October retail numbers imply. – Alex Marlow & John Carney Breitbart News Network     TOP STORY   Retail Sales Jump Higher Than Expected in October As Bidenflation Pushed Prices Up Americans spent more than expected in October but it's not clear how much of the increase represents shoppers buying more and how much was just paying more due to inflation. Retail sales jumped 1.7 percent from the prior month, the Department of Commerce said Tuesday. That easily beat last month's upwardly revised 0.8 percent increase and was well above the one percent gain forecast by analysts surveyed by Econoday. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales increased 1.4 percent, a big jump from September's 0.5 percent gain. Analysts had forecast a 0.8 percent gain. [Click here for more]   IN OTHER STORIES... CBO Casts Doubt on IRS Enforcement to Fund Multi-Trillion Build Back Better Act The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) analysis of increased IRS funding could put a higher price tag on the multi-trillion Build Back Better Act. The White House questioned on Tuesday the accuracy of the CBO as the non-partisan organization will soon release its score of the multi-trillion... [Click here for more]   US Auto Factories Swung Back into Gear in October, Boosting Industrial Production More Than Expected American car assembly lines roared back into action last month, according to official data released Tuesday, a sign the effects of the global semiconductor shortage that has hobbled production may be ending. The gains at automakers helped propel US industrial production 1.6 percent higher in October, according to the Federal Reserve, about double expectations and gaining back ground lost in September, when supply constraints pushed output... [Click here for more]   Bidenflation: Winter Heating Prices Set To Soar Even if Temperatures Stay Warm The heating bills for American households are set to soar this year, adding to the inflation woes of many American families. "We expect that households across the United States will spend more on energy this winter compared with the past several winters because of these higher energy prices and because we assume a slightly colder winter than last year in much of the United States," a recent... [Click here for more] FOLLOW

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