How Hot Will Inflation Get?

                                                           

December 06, 2021   Today's Top Stories From the Breitbart News Desk The market welcomed indications that the potential economic damage from the Omicron variant may be far less severe than initially feared. That in turn rests on the growing consensus among investors that the illness associated with Omicron will also be less severe than thought. While either or both of these points could later turn out to be mistaken, it was good enough to push the major indexes up a percentage point or so. After hours, the futures are flat. It's likely that the market will enter into something of a waiting pattern, perhaps a volatile one, as investors position themselves for the more hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve ahead of next week's meeting. Fed officials have all but guaranteed they will accelerate the taper, although it is not clear how fast they will be willing to go or how long after the program is wound down the Fed will wait to hike rates. Bank of America's analysts see the end of the bond-buying program coming in March, two months earlier than previous estimates, and the first hike in June. One of the big pieces of data that investors will be looking toward this week will be Friday's Consumer Price Index. It's very likely that inflation stayed hot in November. Econoday's consensus forecast is for 6.8 percent year-over-year, up from 6.2 percent in the October read, and 0.7 percent for the month. Core CPI is forecast to rise 4.9 percent annually, faster than the previous read of 4.6 percent. There's a pretty strong possibility that the numbers could come in even hotter than expected. The Manheim wholesale used car prices have been shooting up again, and the mid-month November read was 17 percent higher than the previous peak in May. Back then, the upward pressure was enough to push the overall index above expectations. Early holiday shopping probably put upward pressure on household furnishings, apparel, and recreation categories given the ongoing supply chain constraints. Just how hot could it get? The upper range of forecasts in the Econoday sample is 7.1 percent for the headline number and 5.1 percent core. Anything much above that will likely convince investors that the Fed will be forced to act even more aggressively. A hot number could also have major political implications, creating even more reason for Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and other more moderate Democrats to resist rushing to pass the Build Back Trillions Bill. – Alex Marlow & John Carney Breitbart News Network     TOP STORY   Economists See Year End Surge in Inflation Economists now expect a lot more inflation going into the end of the year than they did a few months ago, a survey from the National Association of Business Economists showed Monday. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy costs, are expected to be up six percent from the fourth quarter of 2020, the NABE said. In the September survey, the increase was forecast at just 5.1 percent. Seventy-one percent of economists survey think the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, will not cool down to the Fed's target of two percent until the second half of 2023 or later. [Click here for more]   IN OTHER STORIES... Pinkerton: Biden's Green New Deal = China First The Biden Plan to Squeeze the Middle Class In a December 1 tweet, Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) got right to the point: A year ago America was energy independent. Now gas prices have skyrocketed, with Hoosiers paying 68% more at the pump compared to this day last year. High energy costs hurt everyone and are a direct result of the mindless decisions made by... [Click here for more]   Stocks and Oil Gain on Hopes Omicron Is Milder Than First Feared A broad range of U.S. stocks rose on Monday as investors digested early indicators that the illness associated with the Omicron variant may be milder than previously thought. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, coming off four consecutive weeks of declines, jumped by more than 725 points, or 2.1 percent. The S&P 500 rose by around 1.6 percent. The Nasdaq Composite gained... [Click here for more]   Amazon Emerging as Top 'Ocean Vendor' as it Skirts Supply Chain Using Private Vessels The online behemoth Amazon is trying to bypass the supply chain crisis by hiring private shipping vessels to transport products to customers from around the world, a move that reflects the retailer's increasing global influence. Ocean freight analyst Steve Ferreira said in a CNBC report: [Click here for more] FOLLOW

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