The Wasteland and the Stock Market

                                                           

April 22, 2022 advertisement Heart Surgeon: I Avoid These 3 "Warning Signs" In Any Olive Oil   Today's Top Stories From the Breitbart News Desk The narrator of T.S. Eliot's "The Wasteland" supposed that April was the cruelest month precisely because it was a time of awakening and revival after the long, comfortable slumber of winter. You are not really supposed to agree with that sentiment, although for over a hundred years people have insisted on quoting Eliot's poem as if the poet himself despised April. For the stock market, April has indeed been the cruelest month in part because it has seen a blossoming awareness that inflation is not going to die of exhaustion after hitting 40-year highs. Evidence of this could be seen in remarks from Fed officials this week. Let's start with Mary Daly, one of the most dovish members of the Federal Open Markets Committee. She made it clear that she supports a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting and foresees an "expeditious march" to a neutral rate by the end of the year. Daly even went so far as to say that a "mild recession" would count as a smooth landing. Her own forecast is that the economy is likely to slow to "something that looks like below-trend growth, but not tip into negative territory, but could potentially tick into negative territory." When the doves are talking about pushing the economy into below trend growth or even contraction, we're no longer dealing with the conviction that we will achieve "immaculate disinflation," or the end of inflation without economic pain. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Friday sealed the deal for a 50 basis point hike at the May meeting and probably at the June meeting. Many analysts are now saying we should expect another 50 in July. There's even some chatter of a "mega-hike" of 75 basis points at one or more of those meetings. That's still very much a minority view on Wall Street; but we've said before that the Fed probably needs to get ahead of market expectations in order to tame inflation, so we would not rule out a bigger than expected hike. It was exactly one month ago that Powell botched his initial attempt at a "hawkish turn" in a speech to the annual convention of the National Association of Business Economists. Instead of markets tightening financial conditions—which means, lowering stock market valuations and raising bond market yields—stocks jumped, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.95 percent. The 5-year breakeven rate, which is the inflation rate implied by the prices of 5-year Treasury bonds and inflation-protected Treasury securities, kept climbing toward an all-time high of 3.59 percent. This time around was much more effective. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 980 points on Friday, for a decline of 2.82 percent. Stocks have now fallen for four straight weeks, and the 10-year Treasury's yield is 2.904 and closing in on three percent. The 5-year breakeven rate has come down to 3.37, which is still mighty high but headed in the right direction. This is the tightening of financial conditions Powell needs. One reason breakevens might not be moving even more is that by all indications, inflation is still headed higher. The Beige Book was full of talk of businesses facing still higher costs and successfully passing those on to their customers. Today's flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) read showed that input inflation in the services sector is at its highest level since data started being collected more than a decade ago. Gasoline, thankfully, is down from a month ago, which could reduce some of the headline month-over-month gain. Used cars are probably headed lower also. But all other indications are that inflation is not peaking but still gaining steam. April showers, a simpler poem holds, bring May flowers. Or, for our purposes, the too long-awaited jump in interest rates. – Alex Marlow & John Carney Breitbart News Network     TOP STORY   Record High Bidenflation is Hurting Growth, Consumer Spending, and Business Confidence, S&P Finds Inflationary pressures soared in April for both manufacturers and services sector businesses, hurting business confidence and the willingness of consumers to spend, according to survey results released Monday. The S&P flash services index tumbled in April to a three-month low of 54.7 from 58.0. That missed expectations for a reading of 57.9. The flash manufacturing index rose to a seven-month high of 59.7 from 58.5. That was better the forecast of 58.1. The flash composite index fell to 55.1 from last month's 57.7, a three-month low. Economists had forecast 57.5, so this number was a downside surprise. [Click here for more]   IN OTHER STORIES... Yellen: 'We Will Have to Put Up with Inflation for a While Longer' In an interview with CNBC's "TechCheck," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicted that the United States would have to "put up with inflation for a while longer." Yellen said the U.S. economy "has been remarkably resilient" given the pandemic, supply chain issues, war in Ukraine and "commodity price increases." Despite touting the economic recovery, she advised that the ongoing Russian attack on Ukraine would "prolong inflationary pressures." [Click here for more]   ESG Energy Crisis: U.S. Added Just One Oil Rig This Week The United States added just one oil rig this week amid renewed pressure from climate change activists on investors to deny capital to fossil fuel producers. The total number of oil rigs in the U.S. ticked up from 548 to 549, data from the oil and gas services company Baker-Hughes showed on Friday. [Click here for more]   Kerry: Expanding Drilling Permits Is 'Temporary' Move to Keep 'the Population Committed to Moving' to Green On Friday's broadcast of MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry commented on the Biden administration granting new drilling leases by stating that he's fine with additional fossil fuel production if it's "geared to be able to deal with the need for economic stability in order to be able to make the transitions that we need," and he views the move "as a temporary measure to try to relieve the price pressure, which is essential to keeping the population committed to moving in these directions," and that President Biden "knows that many of these leases that have been granted are simply not going to be drilled in." Kerry stated, "Is there some additional pumping? Yes, there is. Because demand is up and because, with the situation in Ukraine, the United States is going to do everything it can to help our friends who have made sacrifices by refusing to accept Russian gas and oil and who are now moving even more rapidly to deploy renewables for their own power sectors in their country and transportation in their country. [Click here for more]

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