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Thursday, July 1, 2021

Beware the Ides of June

                                                           
We have already started to see some signs that bringing enhanced unemployment benefits to an early end is giving a boost to the labor market by taking away a powerful disincentive to work.
 

Breitbart Business Digest
July 01, 2021
 

Today's Top Stories From the Breitbart News Desk

We have already started to see some signs that bringing enhanced unemployment benefits to an early end is giving a boost to the labor market by taking away a powerful disincentive to work. There may be further signs of that in the jobs numbers released Friday—but the evidence may be limited because of the timing of the data collection by the Department of Labor.

The nonfarm payroll number that gets released each month is the product of the Labor Department's Current Employment Statistics Survey, better known as the establishment survey. It is the source for all the headlines about how many jobs were created in a month. It also tells us which parts of the economy created which portion of the new jobs and the change in average hourly earnings and the length of the average workweek. The data is collected from employers in the pay period which includes the 12th day of the month—making it something like the Employment Ides of each month. (For the Romans, the Ides was usually the 13th of each month. It fell on the 15th only in March, May, July, and October.)

Although 21 states ended enhanced benefits in June, only four had done so by June 12th, and seven more ended them on June 19th. The other ten did not do so until June 26th, which puts them definitively outside of the survey period. As a result, only a small fraction of the effect of ending enhanced benefits will likely show up in Friday's employment situation report. For a fuller picture, we'll have to wait until the July report is issued in August.

On Thursday, the Census Bureau released the May figures for construction spending. The overall number was below expectations, dragged down by a continued depression in spending on projects such as shopping centers, offices, and hotels. But spending on single-family homes rose 0.8 percent from the month earlier and is up 46.1 percent compared with a year ago. This isn't a pandemic effect. Unlike so many areas of the economy, construction was largely considered an essential service that continued through the lockdowns. And although residential construction spending did dip in April and May, it didn't fall off a cliff. For reference, spending on single-family residence is up by 50.6 percent compared with May of 2019.

This elevated level of spending is not likely to end soon. House prices have skyrocketed, and home builders are still playing catch up. As a result, home building is likely to remain a source of strength for the economy for months—perhaps years—to come.

Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

 
 

TOP STORY

 
Flight from the Cities: Residential Construction Spending Climbs Still Higher
Construction spending unexpectedly fell in May as home building slowed and activity in areas most directly impacted by the pandemic showed persistent weakness. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that spending on construction projects declined 0.3 percent. Compared with a year ago, spending was up 7.5 percent. That was below the consensus forecast of a 0.5 percent gain. But the disappointing number was somewhat offset to upward revisions to earlier months. Construction was considered an essential service throughout most of the country, so it did not suffer the sharp declines seen in so many other areas of the economy last spring. But certain types of construction—such as malls, hotels, and offices—have since seen sharp declines. Lodging is down 23.3 percent from a year ago, office construction is down 8.3 percent, and shopping center construction has tumbled 18 percent. [Click here for more]
 

IN OTHER STORIES...

Exclusive — Rep. Mo Brooks: Democrats Want 'So-Called Infrastructure Bill' to Fail in Order to 'Blame Republicans' for a 'Bridge Collapse'
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) told Breitbart News on Wednesday that Democrats want legislation marketed by the White House as part of a "Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework" to be defeated in Congress in order to blame Republicans for future infrastructure collapses. Breitbart News Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow asksed Brooks on SiriusXM's Breitbart News Daily if the Democrats' goal was to "not pass anything [in order] to claim that they're victims of... [Click here for more]
 
Bokhari: Florida Should Pass a Stronger Big Tech Bill in Special Session
Florida's much-celebrated tech bill has been blocked by a federal judge. The bill committed a grievous, very Republican sin: it promised the world to grassroots conservatives, and in the end delivered nothing. The bill's provisions sounded promising: daily fines on tech companies that banned political candidates, tough transparency requirements, and a right to... [Click here for more]
 
Hayward: China Boasts of Economic Might While Exploiting 'Developing Nation' Status
China celebrated its vast and growing economic power during the 100th birthday celebration for the Chinese Communist Party on Thursday, with dictator Xi Jinping humblebragging that his party has achieved its first centenary goal of "building a moderately prosperous society in all respects." China, however, still presents itself as a "developing nation" to international economic forums like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and enjoys... [Click here for more]
 
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