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There's a good case to be made that while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may be the most politically salient measure of inflation, it's the Producer Price Index (PPI) that you should watch for economic intelligence. CPI is politically relevant, at least when inflation is high, because consumers see it in their bills and at the cash register. But it only scratches the surface of the economy while PPI gives us a deeper and broader look into the economy.
No doubt there are at least some readers of this newsletter for whom a nontrivial amount of time has passed since the last engagement with the nuances of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' different inflation measures. So here's a quick reminder. The CPI measures inflation by surveying what U.S. consumers paid for items at the retail level. It includes imports but excludes exports, since those are paid for by foreign consumers. Perhaps more importantly, it excludes everything further out in the process of bringing products and services to market.
The PPI begins adjacent to the CPI. The "final demand" number that typically grabs the headlines is pretty close to CPI except that it includes sales to businesses, governments, and foreigners in addition to U.S. households. It is, in other words, a clearer view of what U.S. businesses are charging for their goods and services to all their customers. On Thursday, the government said the PPI index rose 0.5 percent in September and was up 8.7 percent annually, the sixth consecutive record high in data that goes back to 2010.
The second half of PPI, often overlooked by the establishment media, is what's known as "intermediate demand." These are the prices paid by businesses at various stages of the production process. And here is where you get a glimpse of the true scale of the inflationary pressures in the economy. Intermediate demand prices were up a jaw-dropping 23.9 percent year over year in September.
But if you really want to see the pressure inflation is putting on the economy, it helps to dig even deeper. The index for materials used by manufacturers is up 53 percent from last year.
Safe to say, Thursday's PPI report marks the death of the idea that inflation is transitory.
– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network
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